Hurricane Season’s Almost Over — Experts Miss The Mark On Predictions Again
Martin Merzer of the Miami Herald has written an article on hurricane predictions, their gross inaccuracies in recent years and the possible effects, both good and bad, being so off on the predictions can have on the general population. It reads, in part:
Two years ago, way under. Last year, way over. This year, still not right.
It’s been a stormy few years for William Gray, Philip Klotzbach and other scientists who predict total hurricane activity before each season begins, which raises fundamental questions as the 2007 season draws to an end on Friday:
Why do they bother? And given the errors — which can undermine faith in the entire hurricane warning system — are these full-season forecasts doing more harm than good?
”The seasonal hurricane forecasters certainly have a lot of explaining to do,” said Max Mayfield, former director of the National Hurricane Center.
With Florida being highly impacted by hurricanes, I imagine this will become a newsworthy topic for various television stations around the state as well as television stations along the Gulf Coast affected by past hurricanes especially Hurricane Katrina.
Admittedly, any weather forecasting is an inexact science but it seems hurricane forecasting is shrouded in mystery with computer models being mentioned often. However it needs to be examined why, in recent years, the forecasts have been so woefully off the mark. According to Merzer’s article the Gray-Klotzbach prediction team from Colorado State University “predicted that 17 named storms would grow into 9 hurricanes, 5 of which would be particularly intense, with winds above 110 mph.” They also made their first published prediction quite early in December of 2007. Merzer makes a valid point using a baseball analogy when he wrote it “would be like predicting — this past October — the Marlins’ precise win-loss record in 2008.” Not exactly strong assurance.
I realize that all such predictions are speculative based upon the best information available, but I would hope and expect those same climate scientists are examining their methods of predicting and, especially after three seasons of being way off the mark, they are working diligently to improve those methods of hurricane forcasting.
Trackposted to Perri Nelson’s Website, Rosemary’s Thoughts, Right Truth, Adam’s Blog, Leaning Straight Up, The Bullwinkle Blog, The Amboy Times, Chuck Adkins, The Pet Haven, Pursuing Holiness, Allie is Wired, DragonLady’s World, Blue Star Chronicles, Pirate’s Cove, The Pink Flamingo, CommonSenseAmerica, Republican National Convention Blog, Dumb Ox Daily News, High Desert Wanderer, and Right Voices. Also thanks to Linkfest Haven Deluxe.
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